Trade Wars and Weather Top Risk List for Logistics Providers
If you're planning capacity and pricing for 2026, Everstream Analytics has some sobering data points. Their latest annual risk report puts hard numbers on what many 3PL operators are already feeling: supply chains are facing a perfect storm of disruptions, with trade regulations and extreme weather leading the pack.
The California-based supply chain analytics firm rates "Geopolitical Fragmentation and Strategic Use of Trade Regulations" as the highest probability threat at 97%. The numbers tell the story—export controls on critical minerals doubled from 2023 to 2025, while other trade restrictions jumped 167%. With China controlling 85% of rare earth processing and 95% of semiconductor-grade silicon coming from just four companies globally, Everstream warns 3PLs should prepare clients for rapid cost increases of 15-25% on critical inputs as trade policy becomes increasingly weaponized.
Close behind at 93% threat level is "Extreme Weather Intensification." Summer 2025 alone produced €43 billion in losses across Europe, and flood disasters now average $42 billion annually—27% higher than in 2000. Agricultural supply chains face the most severe impacts, with 2025's wheat harvest coming in 18% below average and cacao prices soaring 300% due to extreme weather. For 3PLs handling food and agricultural products, this signals broader commodity volatility ahead.
Infrastructure and Cyber Risks Climbing
"Critical Infrastructure Aging and Failure" ranks third at 81% threat level, and the investment gap is staggering. Global infrastructure requires $106 trillion through 2040, with $36 trillion needed for logistics and transport alone. Recent compound weather events exposed severe vulnerabilities—November's three consecutive cyclones caused $615 million in highway damage in Sri Lanka and paralyzed 96% of Thailand-Malaysia cross-border trade. Everstream forecasts at least one multibillion-dollar infrastructure failure in 2026.
Perhaps most concerning for 3PLs directly: cyberattacks on logistics providers surged 61% in 2025, with 213 incidents versus 132 in 2024. That's a 965% increase since 2021. State-sponsored actors from Russia, China, and Iran are now targeting maritime infrastructure with sophisticated campaigns, while Russian drone incursions and GPS jamming in the Baltic Sea—which handles 15% of world cargo shipping—represent escalating hybrid warfare threats.
The takeaway for logistics operators? These aren't hypothetical risks. The data shows these disruptions are already happening and accelerating. Building resilience into operations and client conversations around these four threat areas isn't optional anymore—it's essential for survival in 2026.
