Spring Slowdown Looms After Lunar New Year Rush
US port operators should expect a quieter spring season despite the typical January surge tied to Lunar New Year preparations. According to projections from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, ocean cargo volumes will spike in January before declining year-over-year in subsequent months.
The forecast reflects a cooling period after what's been characterized as a 2025 surge in import activity. The Lunar New Year effect—when manufacturers rush to complete orders before the extended holiday shutdown—will provide a temporary boost to container volumes in January. But that momentum won't carry through the rest of the spring.
What This Means for 3PL Operations
For warehouse operators and third-party logistics providers, the pattern suggests a familiar challenge: managing capacity swings. The January peak will strain receiving and storage capacity, followed by a potentially underutilized spring period. This volatility makes workforce planning and space allocation particularly tricky.
The projected decline also indicates that the front-loading behavior—where retailers and importers pulled forward shipments to avoid potential disruptions—may be tapering off. That could mean more predictable inventory flows later in the year, but also less volume overall compared to the elevated levels seen in early 2025.
